000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N78W 07N110W 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 
120W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W 
AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE SWEEPING OVER THE FAR N 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FIRST TROUGH IS SHEARING OUT 
FROM 32N133W TO 26N131W AS IT MOVES NE 15-20 KT. DOWNSTREAM 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S CALIFORNIA SWD THROUGH A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 22N116W AND WAS MOVING NE 15 KT. A NARROW 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS NOTED BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS N OF 24N ALONG 
123W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERS 
THE AREA W OF THE SECOND TROUGH THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ELSEWHERE 
FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING WWD ACROSS HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA THEN NW OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO NWD TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. SE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS 
ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION NWD.

AT THE SURFACE A 1025 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR 33N127W WITH A 
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 21N110W. WEAK HIGH WAS ONLY RESULTING 
IN LOCALIZED MODERATE TRADES FROM 7N TO 15N W OF 120W. 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 29N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. 
 
GAP WINDS...
STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS 
RESULTED IN ANOTHER SURGE OF STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. A 1208 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 
50 KT WINDS IN THE AREA. WINDS MAY INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS POSSIBLY REACHING 55 KT IN THE AREA TONIGHT. STORM 
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE 
SUBSIDING TO GALE FORCE. 

THE SAME 1208 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NE 20-25 KT WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
PICK UP TO 30 KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THU. 

$$
COBB