000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 7N78W 7N120W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 100W-113W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 125W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N137W TO 25N133W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
MOVING RAPIDLY NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 31N134W REMAINS STATIONARY. MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 120W...EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 
THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA JUST SW OF LAS VEGAS NEVADA...WITH TROUGH SW ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 26N121W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA 
THEN NW ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO THEN NWD TO THE MEXICO/NEW 
MEXICO BORDER. SE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION NWD.

STRONG PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH GALE 
FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANOTHER SURGE OF 
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S TONIGHT AND WINDS MIGHT INCREASE 
TO STORM FORCE. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
32N137W TO 29N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 
31N126W TO 20N112W. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET 
THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W.

$$
DGS