000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 08N87W TO 07N103W TO 07N120W TO 06N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS 89W-112W.

...DISCUSSION...
STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REFUSED TO BUDGE TO APPROACHING 
LONGWAVE TROUGH PREVENTING ANY FURTHER EASTWARD INCURSION OF 
TROUGH AND DEFLECTING IT NE.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BARELY 
REACHING 30N140W EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE AS UPPER 
LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFT NE.  MOISTURE DEBRIS FROM SCATTERED 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ MAKING ITS WAY N FROM 110W-120W N OF 08N 
TO SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  ELSEWHERE E PAC REMAINS FAIRLY 
DRY UNDER RIDGE UMBRELLA.  

AT THE SURFACE...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT EXPECTED TO SURGE TO MINIMAL 
STORM FORCE WINDS TUE NIGHT AS NW COLD FRONT CROSSES GULF OF 
MEXICO REINFORCING 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTER ALREADY IN PLACE.  
SURGE SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND WINDS DIMINISH TO BACK TO GALE 
STRENGTH BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...STRONG NE 
WINDS OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO FORCED BY PREVIOUS COLD FRONT...NOW 
EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO NW PANAMA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR 
EVEN INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER FORECAST PERIOD.  

WELL ANCHORED HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB AT 32N122W DRIFT S AS 
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFT OUT N OF AREA 
ALLOWING TRADE WINDS ON SRN PERIPHERY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID 
WEEK.

$$
WALLY BARNES