000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N82W TO 06N100W TO 08N115W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W TO 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH GULFS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT PAPAGAYO. RECENT SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA 
SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT...HINTING GALE FORCE WINDS PERSIST CLOSER 
TO THE COASTLINE.A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TUE...INCREASING WINDS SLIGHTLY OVER GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ENOUGH TO REACH A MINIMAL STORM BY LATE TUE. THEN 
DIMINISH WED AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. IN 
ADDITION...20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

W OF 110W...
BLOCKING MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ALONG ROUGHLY 125W N 
OF 20N...TO THE NE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR 20N118W. FURTHER 
WEST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SLOWLY EAST NE OF 
HAWAII. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT 
EAST...AND DRAW UP THE CUT OFF LOW. THE MAIN IMPACT AT THE 
SURFACE WILL BE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 30N127W SHIFTING 
SOUTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFT OUT 
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE HIGH 
PRES TO INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 115W IS DUE TO SUFFICIENT 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL 
DIMINISH AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT THROUGH TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN