000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 06N95W TO 08N115W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W TO 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH GULFS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING 
SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 
RESULT OF HIGH PRES NORTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUILDING 
BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. A REINFORCING COLD 
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF TUE...INCREASING WINDS SLIGHTLY 
OVER TEHUANTEPEC...BUT ENOUGH TO REACH A MINIMAL STORM BY WED. 
IN ADDITION...20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED.

W OF 110W...
BLOCKING MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ALONG ROUGHLY 125W N 
OF 20N...TO THE NE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR 20N118W. FURTHER 
WEST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SLOWLY EAST NE OF 
HAWAII. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT 
EAST...AND DRAW UP THE CUT OFF LOW. THE MAIN IMPACT AT THE 
SURFACE WILL BE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 30N127W SHIFTING 
SOUTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFT OUT 
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE HIGH 
PRES TO INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 115W IS DUE TO SUFFICIENT 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL 
DIMINISH AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT THROUGH TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN