000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171018
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N82W TO 06N100W TO 08N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.
 
...DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS TAKEN OVER WRN PART OF ITCZ W OF 
110W BRINGING IN MOISTURE INTO SE QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 19N119W.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 150W 
APPROACHING WRN BOUNDARY OF BASIN ALSO INTRODUCING MOIST AIR 
MASS INTO E PAC BUT WITH LESS ACTIVITY THAN VORTEX.  INCURSION 
OF TROUGH INTO E PAC LIMITED BY BLOCKING RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 
134W.  REMAINING OF FORECAST AREA REMAIN VERY DRY UNDER 
SUBSIDENCE UMBRELLA CREATED BY RIDGE AND CONFLUENCE IN UPPER 
LAYERS.    

STORM FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE 
WITH RELAXING OF PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES CENTER FOLLOWING 
STRONG COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES E.  BUT IN 48 HRS 
SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES GULF OF MEXICO BLASTING 
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AGAIN TO STORM FORCE.  

IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT AS FIRST COLD 
FRONT REACHES WRN CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUE AS SECOND FRONT 
REINFORCES IT.  GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISH AND
SHOULD BE UNDER 20 KT IN LESS THAN 6 HRS. 

TRADE WINDS START PICKING UP AGAIN AS SURFACE RIDGE REBUILDS 
AFTER WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH SHIFT NE DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES