000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 06N77W 
TO 07N88W TO 07N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 09N TO 
11N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 137W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GAP WINDS...
WINDS UP TO STORM STRENGTH THROUGH WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES 
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN 
REINFORCING COOL FRONTS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 
WEEK...WINDS IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE MAY BE PROLONGED FOR 
SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WAS THE CASE A 
COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. SIMILARLY...20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A 
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. FURTHER 
NORTH...SHIP REPORTS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOW 25 TO 30 
KT FLOW PERSISTING SOUTH OF 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN...AND 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER SE TEXAS. 

ELSEWHERE...
BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG ROUGHLY 125W N OF 20N. 
SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS WEAK BENEATH THE LOW...ALLOWING ONLY 
MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
CENTERED TO THE NE OF A UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N120W. 
THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO IMPEDE THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF A 
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH N OF HAWAII. AN ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM HAWAII CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS 
EAST AND MAY REACH THE FAR NW POINT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
30N140W BY MON NIGHT FOLLOWED BY 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND 
CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY MODEST.

$$
CHRISTENSEN