000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM
08N83W TO 06N105W TO 06N120W TO 08N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST 
OF 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 132W TO 137W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS
LARGE WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE AREA 
NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
CIRCULATION. THE MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION. THE AREA EXTENDS NORTH OF 23N FROM 108W TO 123W 
NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS THEN ADVECT EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.

LARGE SCALE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BY 
24 HOURS AFFECT THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH AN 
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS.

THE AREA WEST OF 120W NORTH OF 25N AND THE AREA NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ TO 25N WEST OF 115W IS COVERED IN LOWER LEVEL BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE ITCZ 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

SURFACE
FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NORTH OF 15N. BROAD TROUGH SOUTH OF 
15N.

STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE THROUGH AT LEAST 48 
HOURS.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE DROPPED BELOW 
GALE FORCE AND WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY.

$$
LL