000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161018
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 07N112W TO 08N131W TO 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 93W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTEND FROM SERN USA ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO TO UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 18N119W 
THEN TO 25N130W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR MASS 
ACROSS MOST ENTIRE E PAC EXCEPT MINOR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ON E 
QUADRANT OF VORTEX AND SOME ADVECTED WATER N OF 22N W OF 137W.  

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERING MOST OF BASIN N OF ITCZ SQUEEZED E BY 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT NOW ALONG 145W.  RIDGE EVENTUALLY BLOCKS 
FRONT FROM ANY FURTHER E INCURSION AND FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY 
WITHIN 24 HRS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE BY END OF FORECAST 
PERIOD.  TRADE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT UNDER BLOCKING RIDGE INTO NEXT 
WEEK.  FURTHER S...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW FLOW PERSIST BETWEEN 
GALAPAGOS AND PANAMA.  .

GAP WINDS...
COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN GULF OF MEXICO FORCING WINDS ACROSS 
ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  VERY COLD AIR MASS AND PRES 
STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MAKE WINDS 
REACH STORM FORCE SUN OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  WIND DIMINISH 
BACK TO GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT THROUGH REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

WINDS OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXCEED 20 KT SUN AND MON AS SAME 
COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...GALE FORCE WINDS STARTED DIMINISHING AS 
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM GREAT BASIN TO NRN 
MEXICO WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E.

$$
WALLY BARNES