000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE 
FROM...08N84W TO 07N91W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE BETWEEN 85W TO 90W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG COLD AIR 
ADVECTION AND WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS 
TO MIX DOWN...PRESENTING A GOOD CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING STORM 
FORCE TOMORROW OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS DIMINISH 
GRADUALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS 
AND SHIFTS EAST. SIMILARLY...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WILL EXCEED 20 KT SUN AND MON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL APPROACH 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
FONSECA...SINCE 2O KT WINDS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT OVER HIGHER 
TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STARTING WILL DIMINISH 
OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT 
BASIN TO NORTHERN MEXICO WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

ELSEWHERE...A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 130W N OF 
25N...TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N124N. THIS 
FORMS A BLOCK TO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING EAST TO THE NORTH 
OF HAWAII. AN ASSOCIATED ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE 
FAR NW DISCUSSION AREA BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN STALL AND 
DISSIPATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT UNDER THE BLOCKING 
RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTEROMETER AND 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW 
PERSISTING BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND PANAMA. FURTHER NORTH...A 
LARGE AREA OF SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT WITH 14 SECOND PERIODS WILL 
GRADUALLY DECAY AS IT PUSHES SE INTO THE MEXICAN COAST.

$$
CHRISTENSEN