000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM... 
09N84W TO 06N108W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE BETWEEN 85W TO 88W...AND WITHIN 
30 NM OF LINE BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE...WITH WINDS REACHING 30 KT ALREADY AT COATZACOALCOS. 
GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL START IN A FEW 
HOURS...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO STORM STRENGTH SUN. WINDS 
DIMINISH GRADUALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SIMILARLY...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL EXCEED 20 KT SUN AND MON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL APPROACH 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
FONSECA...SINCE 2O KT WINDS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT OVER HIGHER 
TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1039 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
OF THE U.S. THE GRADIENT DRAPES ACROSS NW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SHIP REPORTS INDICATE 35 TO 40 KT ARE 
ONGOING...THE RESULT OF THE HIGHER PRES FUNNELING INTO THE LOCAL 
BASIN. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH SUN AS 
THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST AND EASES THE TIGHT 
GRADIENT.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW PERSISTING BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND 
PANAMA. FURTHER NORTH...A LARGE AREA OF SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT WITH 
14 SECOND PERIODS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS IT PUSHES SE INTO THE 
MEXICAN COAST.

$$
CHRISTENSEN