000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM... 
07N77W TO 06N105W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS EAST OF 99W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 07.5N131.5W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N125W. 
WITHIN 800 NM IN THE NORTH QUADRANT AND WITHIN 400 NM ELSEWHERE 
THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS WITH MOSTLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS AND 
MOVE LITTLE. 

THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS AND MOST OF THE MIDDLE LEVELS 
IS COVERED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS THE 
HIGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 35N130W. THE FEATURE IS 
FORECAST TO PERSIS THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OVER 
CALIFORNIA FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

SURFACE... 
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH 
IS ANALYZED. OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE 
ITCZ EAST OF 110W. MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ EAST OF 99W 
IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS 
WHICH ARE ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING 
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH DURING 
SUNDAY.

A TEHUANTEPEC STORM EVENT WILL BEGIN LATER TODAY WITH GALE FORCE 
WINDS SUDDENLY BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING STORM 
FORCE BY EARLY SUNDAY.

$$
LL