000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 06N104W TO 09N128W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 98W.
 
...UPPER LEVEL DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS DIGS SW 
FROM TEXAS ACROSS MEXICO TO CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 16N120W 
THEN CONTINUES NW TO 24N130W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
ALONG TROUGH AXIS AND UNDER BROAD RIDGE TO THE N KEEPS MOST OF E 
PAC E OF 135W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS AND VOID OF ANY DEEP 
CONVECTION.  LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO E PAC N OF 
16N W OF 135W BY WEAK JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING UPSTREAM.    

AT THE SURFACE...
VERY STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRES CENTER OVER WESTERN STATES NEAR 
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND LOW PRES 1013 MB OVER SRN CALIFORNIA ARE 
FUNNELING STRONG N WINDS ACROSS NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  NOAA 
SHIP REPORTS DAYTIME WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT...WITH FREQUENT 
GUST TO GALE FORCE...WITH WEAKENING OCCURRING DURING NIGHTTIME 
APPARENTLY DUE TO STRONG INVERSION CAUSING DECOUPLING OF BOTTOM 
LAYER.  WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E WITHIN 
24 HRS.

HEALTHY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO SAT WITH VERY 
DRY COLD AIR MASS FUNNELING ACROSS ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED STARTING SAT NIGHT WITH 
SURGE TO STORM FORCE DAYTIME SUN THEN DIMINISH BACK TO GALE 
FORCE SUN NIGHT.  FURTHER SE...COLD FRONT ENTERS CARIBBEAN 
FORCING WINDS ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO SUN.

HIGH PRES CENTER 1031 MB AT 40N132W SHIFT NE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE 
OF SLOW MOVING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT.  TRADE WINDS S OF 
SURFACE HIGH PRES DIMINISH SAT...ALONG WITH N WINDS BETWEEN 
SURFACE HIGH AND BAJA COAST. 

$$
WALLY BARNES