000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150329 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT NOV 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG LINE FROM 08N83W TO 06N100W TO 09N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA... WINDS ALONG COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE STARTED TO DECOUPLE. HOWEVER 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER IDAHO CONTINUES TO BUILD SE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA...CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SW UNITED STATES TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SHIP REPORTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF SHOW 25 KT CURRENTLY. GIVEN THAT THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE WINDS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ENOUGH TO REACH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH STARTING TOMORROW AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS EAST...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN SOMEWHAT. GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO... A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SE TEXAS AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT...DELIVERING STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. GALE CONDITIONS WILL START SAT EVENING...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO STORM CONDITIONS ON SUN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FURTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ON SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE... UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 30N120W WITH CUT OFF UPPER LOW DIRECTLY TO ITS SOUTH NEAR 18N120W. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER MAKE A REX BLOCK PATTERN...INHIBITING THE PROGRESS OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW STATES THROUGH SUN. AS A RESULT...AN ASSOCIATED 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 40N132W WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT. NET EFFECT OF THIS IS THAT 20 KT TRADES SOUTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SAT...ALONG WITH 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE BAJA COAST. NW SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT WITH 14 SECOND PERIODS WILL DECAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT PUSHES TOWARD MEXICO FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. $$ CHRISTENSEN