000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG LINE FROM 08N83W TO 
06N104W TO 09N123W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER IDAHO IS BUILDING SE OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN AREA...CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SW 
UNITED STATES. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE FUNNELING DOWN THE COLORADO 
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NOAA 
SHIP DAVID STARR JORDAN ON STATION IN THE NORTHERN GULF REPORTED 
30 KT WINDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE HIGH PRES 
WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE 
WINDS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ENOUGH TO REACH 
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH STARTING 
TOMORROW AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS 
EAST...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN SOMEWHAT.

GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS CURRENTLY AND WILL 
PUSH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT...DELIVERING STRONG GAP 
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING BY SAT AFTERNOON. 
GALE CONDITIONS WILL START LATE SAT...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF 
THE HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS MAY COME CLOSE 
TO STORM CONDITIONS ON SUN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
FURTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO BY LATE SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CARIBBEAN

ELSEWHERE...
UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 30N120W WITH CUT OFF UPPER LOW 
DIRECTLY TO ITS SOUTH NEAR 18N120W. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER MAKE 
A REX BLOCK PATTERN...INHIBITING THE PROGRESS OF A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE TROUGH 
WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW STATES THROUGH SUN. AS A 
RESULT...AN ASSOCIATED 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 40N132W 
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING 
AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT. NET EFFECT OF THIS IS THAT 20 KT 
TRADES SOUTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 
SAT...ALONG WITH 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH 
AND THE BAJA COAST. NW SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT WITH 14 SECOND 
PERIODS WILL DECAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT PUSHES 
TOWARD MEXICO FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.

$$
CHRISTENSEN