000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1330 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG LINE FROM 07N78W TO 
09N90W TO 07N103W TO 09N118W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 100 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY N OF FORECAST 
WATERS...THAT HAS BROUGHT STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WINDS OVER W 
WATERS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS WEAKENING 
AND BEGINNING ITS NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION.  N WINDS OVER 20 KT 
CAN STILL BE FOUND E OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER N CENTRAL 
WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ABATE OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS.  

ALOFT...THE ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AT 
THE SURFACE WILL BE ERODED ON ITS SOUTHERN EDGE BY AN UPPER LOW 
SHED FROM THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO.  THIS LOW WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS THE ANTICYCLONE IS 
FORCED EASTWARD BY THE INCREASINGLY MORE PROGRESSIVE MID 
LATITUDE FLOW.  THE DISRUPTION OF THE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE 
OVER NORTHEAST WATERS WILL CAUSE WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO BE 
LIGHT...10 KT OR LESS...IN MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 15N AND E OF 
130W BY SUN.  A SIGNIFICANT EXCEPTION WILL BE THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WHERE NW WINDS INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A POTENT COLD 
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINLAND MEXICO ON SAT AND LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT THIS EVENING INTO SUN.  

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BY SAT 
EVENING...CARRYING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC.  WINDS WILL QUICKLY RISE 
ABOVE GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND ARE 
EXPECTED TO APPROACH STORM FORCE ON SUN.  STRONG NE 
WINDS...BETWEEN 20 KT AND GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY SUN AS WELL.

ELSEWHERE...SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN 
EDGE OF THE WEAK TROUGH NEAR 140W N OF 10N WILL CONTINUE TO 
BRING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NW WATERS OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS AS THIS WEAK TROUGH IS PICKED UP BY ANOTHER 
TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...AS IT PUSHES 
EASTWARD.  THE MEAN FLOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT OVER 
THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE INCOMING TROUGH IS ALSO 
EXPECTED TO PICK UP THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADING S OF 
THE ANTICYCLONE OVER N WATERS ON SUN.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK