000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140955
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 09N87W TO 07N104W TO 10N119W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E OF 85W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTEND THROUGH ENERGETIC 
CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER TEXAS TO 19N110W TO 19N122W.  TROUGH PUSHED 
E BY BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH CENTER AT 30N119W.  
VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF TROUGH AXIS BUT MOISTURE IS BEING BROUGHT 
INTO E PAC ALOFT N OF 10N W OF 130W BY HEALTHY UPSTREAM TROUGH 
NOW W OF 140W.  ANTICYCLONIC GYRE ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH 
BRINGS MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO E PAC E OF 85W ALONG 
ITCZ BELT.  

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1030 MB CENTERED 37N134W WITH SURFACE RIDGE TO 14N112W 
HELPS CAP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST E PAC W OF 85W.  RIDGE MOVES E 
BRINGS INCREASE IN N-NW WINDS INTO CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDING S 
ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  RIDGE ALSO 
RESPONSIBLE FOR SMALL AREA OF NE TRADES FROM 10N-18N W OF 120W
WHICH DECREASES AS HIGH PRES MOVES E.
  
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO HEALTHY UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
MENTIONED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH WILL APPROACH NW CORNER OF BASIN 
WITHIN 48 HRS INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT.  FRONT SLOW DOWN 
WHILE STILL W OF 120W AND SHIFT NE WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.  

FURTHER E...FAST MOVING AND VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING 
THROUGH GULF OF MEXICO SAT AND SUN BRING RUSH OF COLD DENSE AIR 
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SETTING STAGE FOR 
GALE EVENT WITHIN 48 HRS...POSSIBLY REACH STORM FORCE WINDS... 
FOR SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MOST LIKELY SUN.  

$$
WALLY BARNES