000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 07N92W 
TO 06N100W TO 10N115W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
NOTED.
 
...DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER 
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO TO MANZANILLO TO NEAR 
20N120W OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TROUGH IS TO THE SOUTH OF 
A QUASI-STATIONARY BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS 
CENTERED 36N134W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 
20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE BAJA 
COAST. 20 KT TRADES ARE NOTED TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH. FURTHER 
WEST...A MID/UPPER TROUGH EAST OF HAWAII WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE 
AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH DIGGING EAST TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST AND 
EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE FAR NW DISCUSSION AREA THIS WEEKEND 
BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING. THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED 
PATTERN WILL ALSO INDUCE THE SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT FURTHER TO 
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI...ALLOWING THE TRADES TO GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN 23Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS PERSISTENT 20 KT SW WINDS BETWEEN 
GALAPAGOS AND PANAMA...WITH SWELL UP TO 8 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE RUSH OF DENSER AIR BEHIND 
THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE SAT INTO 
SUN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT GALE EVENT IN THAT AREA. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN