000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132118
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 07N103W 
TO 10N118W TO 07N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER 
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO TO MANZANILLO TO NEAR 
20N120W OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TROUGH IS TO THE SOUTH OF 
A QUASI-STATIONARY BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS 
CENTERED 36N134W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 KT TRADE 
WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH...MAINLY N OF 10N 
AND W OF 120W. FURTHER WEST...A MID/UPPER TROUGH EAST OF HAWAII 
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH DIGGING EAST TO 
THE NORTH OF HAWAII. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW 
PROGRESS EAST AND EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE FAR NW DISCUSSION 
AREA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING. THE 
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL ALSO INDUCE THE SURFACE HIGH 
TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI...ALLOWING THE 
TRADES TO GRADUALL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED PERSISTENT 20 KT SW 
WINDS BETWEEN GALAPAGOS AND PANAMA...WITH SWELL UP TO 8 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE RUSH OF DENSER AIR BEHIND 
THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE SAT INTO 
SUN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT GALE EVENT IN THAT AREA. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN