000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 08N83W 
TO 06N94W TO 08N106W TO 07N120W TO 08N134W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 80W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES N OF 20N WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH NW MEXICO...AHEAD OF A 
DEEP LAYER BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 125W. FURTHER 
WEST...ANOTHER TROUGH IS DIGGING EAST TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII 
PUSHING AN SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE ISLANDS. THE UPPER 
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE 
WEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE 
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA FROM 18Z SHOWED A PERSISTENT BROAD BAND OF 20 TO 25 KT 
TRADE WINDS S OF THE SURFACE HIGH GENERALLY N OF 10N W OF 
125W...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH 
CENTER AND THE BAJA COAST. THE TRADES SOUTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH 
WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MIGRATES EAST. MEANWHILE 
HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS INTERACTING WITH LOW PRES OVER 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWS 15 TO 20 
KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACTIVE E OF THE GALAPAGOS TOWARD PANAMA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN