000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121006
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG THE LINE...
08N84W 08N120W 07N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 45-60 NM OF 
6N78.3W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120-180 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 118W AND 135W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...
VERY AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN 
TEXAS ACROSS NW MEXICO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A COL NEAR 
25N123W. COL WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG 27N130W
TO 24N120W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE DEFORMATION 
AXIS AND COL AND WRAPPING AROUND TO THE SE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH 
NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION IN THE OVERALL 
PATTERN WITH THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER NRN MEXICO WITHIN 36 
HOURS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N148W IS RACING WWD 
BENEATH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N134W. UPPER 
LOW FORECAST TO TURN NWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BLOCKING 
ANTICYCLONE AS IT DRIFTS EWD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 

AT THE SURFACE...1031 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 32N136W WITH ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 30N130W TO 20N110W. A PARTIAL 336 UTC
HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 25 
KT TRADE WINDS S OF THE SURFACE HIGH GENERALLY BETWEEN 10N AND 
24N. A JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED 12 FT SEAS NEAR 17N133W IN 
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH NWW3 WAVE MODEL DATA WHICH SUGGESTED 
HIGHER SEAS...14 FT...ALONG 140W. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE AS 
WELL THROUGH THU...ALLOWING TRADES TO THE SOUTH TO DIMINISH 
LEAVING MAINLY NE SWELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 
120W. 

OVER THE TROPICS S OF 15N...MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A 
LACK OF GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE HOLDING CONVECTION TO A 
MINIMUM ALONG THE ITCZ FOR NOW. DRIEST AIR WAS CONCENTRATED E OF 
110W. SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW INTO THE ITCZ WILL 
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENHANCING 
CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 115W. SOUTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA E OF THE GALAPAGOS WED INTO 
THU...BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT ON FRI. 

$$
COBB