000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 08N82W TO 06N105W 
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
116W AND 119W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 
32N137W. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOW A BROAD AREA 
OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS S OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE 
NORTHERN BAJA COAST BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A TROUGH OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TONIGHT OVER 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD. 
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM SW UNITED STATES TO AN UPPER LOW AT 20N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW FORMS A REX BLOCK PATTERN. THE RIDGE 
WILL SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TO THE NORTH OF 
HAWAII BY THU. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE AS WELL 
THROUGH THU...ALLOWING TRADES TO THE SOUTH TO DIMINISH...LEAVING 
MAINLY NE SWELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 120W. 

OVER THE TROPICS S OF 15N...MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A 
LACK OF GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE HOLDING CONVECTION TO A 
MINIMUM ALONG THE ITCZ FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW 
INTO THE ITCZ WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...ENHANCING CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 115W. SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 
UP TO 8 FT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA E OF THE GALAPAGOS 
WED INTO THU...BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT ON FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN