000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 07N90W 
TO 08N133W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 31N136W. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS 
S OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS SHOWS 
20 KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES 
AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PICK UP TONIGHT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE HIGH PRES 
SHIFTS EASTWARD. AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW UNITED STATES TO AN UPPER LOW AT 
20N140W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW FORMS A REX 
BLOCK PATTERN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS 
AS A RESULT IN THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W. 

MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A LACK OF GOOD DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE ARE HOLDING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM ALONG THE ITCZ FOR 
NOW. SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW INTO THE ITCZ WILL INCREASE 
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENHANCING CONVECTION 
MAINLY W OF 115W. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN