000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CAN BE FOUND ALONG A 
LINE FROM 07N77W TO 08N93W TO 07N103W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 
150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 80W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
130W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 30 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
100W AND 103W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 
129W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASSES FROM 0226 UTC AND 0406 UTC 
REVEAL A LARGE AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM 14N 
AND 22N BETWEEN 127W AND 142W ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A 1028 MB 
HIGH CENTERED JUST NW OF THE AREA.  THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO 
SLACKEN SOMEWHAT THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
LIFTS TO THE NNE...BUT WINDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN OVER 20 KT IN 
MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 130W 
THROUGH THU.

ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH...NW TO N FLOW 20 TO 25 
KT LIES OFF THE BAJA N OF 28N E OF 123W ACCORDING TO THE 
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0222 UTC.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
GENERALLY CONTINUE OVER N TO NE WATERS THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH 
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO IN 
RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA.  

CURRENTLY...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AZ/NM 
BORDER WITH MEXICO THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR  
23N124W.  THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE LEADING EDGE 
OF THIS TROUGH IS PUMPING MOISTURE AT THAT LEVEL FROM THE 
TROPICS W OF 120W.  THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
JET BETWEEN 120W AND 140W S OF 15N IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 134W.  JUST TO THE N...MID LEVEL 
ENERGY ABANDONED BY THE TROUGH HAS CUT OFF A LOW WHICH IS 
EXPECTED TO BE PROPELLED NW AROUND THE SW EDGE OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE TO ITS N AND INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT BROAD 
TROUGH APPROACHING NW WATERS THU.

OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 120W...STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY BETWEEN 100W AND 105W SHOULD GRADUALLY 
SHIFT E...LIMITING THE GENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE 
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALONG THE ITCZ IN THAT REGION IS 
DISSIPATING UNDER THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  FARTHER 
E...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 80W IN A REGION OF UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. 

$$
SCHAUER CLARK