000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS LIES ALONG THE LINE 
06N77W TO 06N110W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 
07.5N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN THE AREA FROM 06.5N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 127W AND 137W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE 
NORTHEAST PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AREA AND OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SYSTEM. A LONG LIVED MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE 
LINE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 30N97W TO 21N125W TO 07N140W. A 
PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. THE PLUME IS NEAR 300 NM WIDE EAST OF 115W AND 600 
NM WIDE WEST OF 115W. THIS MOISTURE IS EMANATING FROM CONVECTION 
NEAR THE ITCZ WEST OF 125W. THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS NORTH 
OF ABOUT 19N.

ITCZ CONVECTION FROM 89W TO 98W IS ADVECTING NORTHEAST IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE ISTHMUS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
OTHERWISE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR 22N98W TO 20N110W 
TO 06N118W TO 04N140W THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS NOTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD 
RIDGE.

MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 110W. THE RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCREASING THE 
NORTHEAST TRADES. WINDS IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 25N WEST OF 120W 
WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AND IN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KNOTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED 
AS A BROAD TROUGH.

$$
LL