000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS LIES ALONG THE LINE 
05N77W TO 06N105W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 06N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 07N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 126W AND 136W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE 
NORTHEAST PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AREA AND OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SYSTEM. A LONG LIVED MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE ALONG THE 
LINE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 30N97W TO 21N125W TO 07N140W. A 
PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. THE PLUME IS NEAR 300 NM WIDE EAST OF 115W AND 600 
NM WIDE WEST OF 115W. THIS MOISTURE IS EMANATING FROM CONVECTION 
NEAR THE ITCZ WEST OF 125W. THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS. 

ITCZ CONVECTION FROM 89W TO 98W IS ADVECTING NORTHEAST IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE ISTHMUS OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
MOSTLY SOUTH OF 15N. OTHERWISE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 
NEAR 22N98W TO 20N110W TO 06N118W TO 04N140W IS DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS NOTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD 
RIDGE.

MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WES OF 110W. THE RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCREASING THE 
NORTHEAST TRADES. WINDS WILL REACH TO 20 TO 30 KT RANGE IN 24 
HOURS IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 25N WEST OF 120W.  THE REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH.

$$
LL