000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101520 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 10 2008

...CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS LIES ALONG THE LINE 
07N78W TO 06N100W TO 07N119W TO 07N123W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 150 
NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION LIED WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W 
AND 131W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 111W AS 
WELL AS BETWEEN 123W AND 125W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
A POSITIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER LAYER TROUGH LIES ALONG AN AXIS 
FROM 30N112W TO 20N126W TO 12N140W. THE TROUGH IS ALREADY 
BEGINNING TO SHED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM ITS 
SOUTHERN EDGE.  THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD 
UNDER THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE DEEP LAYERED 
ANTICYCLONE TO ITS N.  THIS PROGRESSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL LIFT 
NORTHWARD AS IT CHASES THE TROUGH EASTWARD INTO NORTH 
AMERICA...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH DOWNSTREAM.  

DESPITE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...THE REAR RIGHT 
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVE STATIONARY 
BETWEEN 05N TO 15N W OF 125W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE 
LIFTING NORTH.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT...WITH THE 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS W OF 125W GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD 
TOMORROW.  THE FLOW REGIME AT THE SURFACE HERE WILL BE DOMINATED 
BY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH 
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NW OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO 
EXCEED 20 KT FROM 11N TO 24N W OF 122W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...A STRONG 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THIS HIGH IS GENERATING NW TO N WINDS 
OVER 20 KT IN THE REGION N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W THAT ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.  

IN THE TROPICAL E PAC E OF 120W...THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.  THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS 
ANTICYCLONE WILL MEET UP WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...YIELDING CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION IN THE REGION W OF THE UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS.  CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W AS 
WELL AS WITHIN 75 NM OF COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 04N TO 06N.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK