000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 10N85W 
06N100W 09N120W 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45-60 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
90-120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 95W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SHEARED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN MEXICO 
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N113W SWWD THROUGH 23N125W
THROUGH 14N140W. A SHEARED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
18N133W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 45-60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS NOTED ABOVE TO 130W AND MERGED INTO A LARGER 
AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE N AND W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 25N AND 
EXTENDING WWD BEYOND 140W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM CUTS 
ACROSS THE SE SIDE OF THE SHEARED TROUGH THROUGH 13N140W 19N130W 
25N115W AND ACROSS EXTREME NRN MEXICO THE GULF COAST. CIMSS 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 90-110 KT 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS JET WAS 
ADVECTING A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS EWD ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND NRN MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS EMANATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION 
MOSTLY BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
SWEEPING DOWN THE W COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA AND JUST OFF NW BAJA 
CALIFORNIA IS IN THE PROCESS OF OVERTAKING THE NRN PORTION OF 
THE SHEARED TROUGH NOTED ABOVE.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOTED EARLIER YESTERDAY NEAR 15N107W HAS 
DISSIPATED...HOWEVER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATED THE PATTERN 
OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 115W AND WAS SEPARATED FROM 
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN BY A WEAK SHEAR AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC/100W. THIS 
AREA WAS ALSO CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE. 
   
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 22N115W. 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE 
SW CONUS HAS RESULTED IN NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NE 
PACIFIC. THESE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

$$
COBB