000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092126
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 06N77W TO 06N110W TO 08N120W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE POINT 10N130W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED 
STATES AND SWEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. 
SHORTWAVE IS ALONG THE LINE 32N110W TO 28N115W TO 27N120W. 
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE CONFINED TO JUST NORTH 
OF THE AREA. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
ARE DRY AND CLOUD FREE. 

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 29N100W TO 
25N117W TO 11N140W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
20N131W AND IS WEAKENING AND WILL BE ABSORBED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 
HOURS. THE AREA W AND N OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MOSTLY BROKEN TO SCATTERED 
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A PLUME OF MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS 300 NM SE 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS MOISTURE EMANATES FROM CONVECTION THAT 
HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N FROM 128W TO 135W. THIS 
CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST 
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.

REMAINDER OF AREA IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS. 

EXCEPT FOR SOME MOISTURE NEAR THE COASTS OF PANAMA TO NICARAGUA 
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 23N98W TO 20N110W TO 07N115W 
TO 06N135W TO 00N135W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS SOUTH OF THE 
ITCZ FROM 80W TO 125W.

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 118W. REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS BROAD TROUGH.

$$
LL