000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091530 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN NOV 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE EXTENDING FROM 08N83W TO 06N97W TO 10N128W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 75 AND 210 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE LAST DAY OR TWO...LEADING TO A RISE IN SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR AND N OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RISING PRESSURES MEXICO JUXTAPOSED WITH RELATIVE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC HAS LED TO WHAT SHOULD BE A BRIEF AND FAIRLY WEAK GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND A 1242 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT PREVAIL WITHIN ABOUT 45 EITHER SIDE OF A LINE RUNNING FROM 16.5N94.5W TO 14N95.5W THERE NOW WITH NOAA WAVEWATCH OUTPUT CLAIMING SEAS TO BE UP TO 8 FT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE OTHER DATA...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0334 UTC DID INDICATE 15 KT NE WINDS AS FAR S AS 10N97.5W. GIVEN ASCAT DATA'S INHERENT LOW BIAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT EXTEND AS FAR AS THIS POINT. WITH ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AND SOUTHWEST INTO MEXICO SHOULD BE QUICK TO CHANGE TODAY AND MON. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE DEMISE OF THE CURRENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WITHIN 12 HOURS...AS PRESSURES LOWER OVER MEXICO. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FORECASTING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUE...WITH THE RIDGE ARCING WELL SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS INCREASE IN SURFACE PRESSURE E OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ALONG WITH RELATIVE LOW PRESSURE TO THE W...SHOULD FAVOR THE SEASON'S FIRST GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WIND EPISODE WILL BE TERRIBLY STRONG...WITH GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS INDICATING NE WINDS TO 20 KT DEVELOPING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF 11N E OF 88W BY TUE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THE SAME SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...SHOULD CARRY A NEW COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY AND MON. WITH THE FRONT ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE AREA W OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...SEVERAL SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE NW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS SURGING INTO THE REGION...WHILE SE TO S WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATER MON...NW SWELL GENERATED N OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING SE...ENGULFING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOAA WAVEWATCH INDICATES SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. FINALLY...A PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RELATED STORM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH A STRONG PACIFIC JET AND ULTIMATELY REACHING THE WESTERN U.S. IS KEEPING ENHANCED SURFACE RIDGING IN THEIR WAKE OVER THE MID-LATITUDE AND SUBTROPICAL NE PACIFIC. ALREADY NE TRADES OF AROUND 20 KT ARE BEING OBSERVED GENERALLY FROM 12N TO 26N W OF 129W. THIS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE BAND OF NE 20 TO PERHAPS 30 KT WINDS FROM ABOUT 10N TO 25N W OF 120W...HIGHEST WINDS TO THE W. EXPECTS SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT NOW TO BUILD TO 8 TO 13 FT BY TUE IN A MIXTURE OF NW AND NE SWELL. $$ KIMBERLAIN