000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090955
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE... 
08N77W 06N100W 10N125W 08N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
150-180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 132W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N114W SWWD THROUGH 25N124W TO 
14N140W. A SHEARED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
20.5N130W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 45-60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS NOTED ABOVE TO 130W AND MERGED INTO A
LARGER AREA N AND W OF THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH 140W. AXIS OF 
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM CUTS ACROSS THE SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
THROUGH 13N140W 18N130W THEN CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH
28N115W THEN SPILLS EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED 
WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 90-110 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS JET WAS ADVECTING A PLUME OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS EWD ACROSS THE 
NE PACIFIC...BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS 
EMANATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION MOSTLY WEST OF 130W.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING DOWN THE W COAST OF CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA SHOULD OVERTAKE THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH NOTED 
ABOVE OVER THE SW CONUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N107W DOMINATED THE PATTERN OVER 
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 118W AND WAS SEPARATED FROM ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY A WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING
FROM JUST W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC/100W. THIS AREA WAS 
ALSO CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE. 
   
AT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 18N110W. A 
DYING COLD FRONT WAS JUST N OF THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF THE 
FRONT SHOULD USHER IN NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NE 
PACIFIC IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

$$
COBB