000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG FROM 08N82W TO 
06N100W TO 10N123W TO 12N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 105 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 119W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90-120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 02 UTC LAST NIGHT AND AN 
ASCAT PASS AT 04 UTC STILL SUGGESTED THE PRESENCE OF NW 20 TO 25 
KT WINDS N OF 26N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TWO RECENT SHIP 
REPORTS SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO ABATE OVERNIGHT AND 
INTO THE MORNING. STILL THOUGH...RECENT MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT
SCATTERED NW WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT MAY CONTINUE OVER THE AREA 
BETWEEN 25N AND 30N...BUT THESE DIMINISH FURTHER BY THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST AFTER THE HEIGHT OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA GALE EVENT SEAS OF UP TO 8 OR 9 FT WERE ESTIMATED IN 
SOME AREAS. SINCE THEN...SEAS HAVE LIKELY SUBSIDED TO 3 TO 5 FT 
AND SHOULD CONTINUE SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NE 
MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG 
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND NOW CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGING 
HAS ALREADY BUILT SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL 
MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAS LED TO A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR 
ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THAN THE ONE WITHIN 
THE LAST WEEK OR SO. A 0356 UTC ASCAT PASS ALREADY REVEALED N 
WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 50 NM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
AND IT ASSUMED THAT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVER THIS OR A SLIGHTLY
LARGER AREA BY NOW. HIGH RESOLUTION NAM GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 
THAT THIS PARTICULAR GAP WIND EVENT SHOULD PEAK LATER THIS 
EVENING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY. WITH THIS EVENT OF 
LIMITED DURATION...SEAS MAY PEAK AS HIGH AS 8 FT FOR A BRIEF 
TIME DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE 
FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER ON SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE THE U.S. WEST 
COAST SHOULD DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LATER TODAY AND THEN 
ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS MON. AS IT DOES SO...A FRESH 
SUPPLY OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER AIR 
SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE NEW SURFACE RIDGE
ARCING DOWN THE LOWER WEST COAST SHOULD REINVIGORATE NW WINDS
TO 20 KT GENERALLY N OF ABOUT 27N AND W OF 125W SUN INTO 
MON...WITH SEAS EVENTUALLY BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT. 8 TO 9 FT 
SWELL SHOULD ALSO ENGULF THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVER THE 
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WINDS TO GALE 
FORCE WELL N OF THE AREA TODAY.

FINALLY...THE SAME ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL RIDING OVER AND N OF THE 
AREA SHOULD KEEP TRADES STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE OVER A BELT ROUGHLY
FROM 10N TO 25N AND W OF 130W. THE STRONGEST WINDS...ACCORDING TO
MODEL GUIDANCE...SHOULD LIE CLOSE TO THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
AREA...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT BY SUN.

$$

KIMBERLAIN