000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 09N84W 
12N95W 11N130W 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
45-60 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO A BASE 
NEAR 15N140W. AN EMBEDDED ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 21N133W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE 
W AND SW SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 14N TO 25N W OF 136W AND WAS 
MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG 140W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET WAS CUTTING 
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 14N140W AND EXTENDED NE 
THROUGH 18N130W 27N120W THEN TURNED MORE EWD AND SOMEWHAT LESS 
DEFINED IN AN AREA OF BROAD WLY FLOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS WERE 70-90 KT.

THE AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET WAS REDEFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN AN AREA OF CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE 
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S. ALONG 90W AND A 
LARGE ANTICYCLONE JUST E OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. 

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NOTED 
ABOVE TO A COL NEAR 11N99W. RIDGE THEN CONTINUED ALONG 12N105W  
TO 10N125W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED OVER THE 
DEEP TROPICS S OF 6N W OF 100W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N135W SOUTHEAST 
THROUGH  27N125W TO 21N115W. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS 
LOCATED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N131W. A 0538 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION 
ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THE LOW IS ELONGATED ALONG A SW-NE AXIS. 
 
0354 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED NW WINDS OF 20+ 
KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N. THIS AREA OF WINDS WAS 
SOMEWHAT CONFIRMED BY THE SHIP RYNDAM IN THE SAME AREA WHICH 
REPORTED NW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 0600 UTC. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND DROP BELOW 20 KT 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. 

$$
COBB