000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 09N85W 
TO 06N100W TO 11N128W TO 08N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS E OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W 
AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM LATE YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS 
MORNING INDICATE THE GALE EVENT IN NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IS ON THE WANE. STILL THOUGH...CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE 
...TAKEN WITH THOSE EARLIER DATA...SUGGEST THAT NW WINDS OF 20 
TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY BLOWING N OF 25N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
THIS MORNING. CORROBORATING THIS IS THE NOAA SHIP THE DAVID STAR 
JORDAN ANCHORED CLOSE TO 31N114.7W...WHICH IS STILL REPORTING NW 
WINDS NEAR 25 KT. ALTHOUGH THE FETCH AREA IS RATHER NARROW...THE 
NOAA WAVEWATCH III MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SEAS HAVE BUILT TO AT 
LEAST 8 FT...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO OBSERVE SEAS JUST 
SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF THIS VALUE. THE PATTERN WHICH FAVORED THIS 
WIND EVENT SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE WITHIN 24 TO 36 
HOURS.

ON THE HEELS OF A LONG-LIVED GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LAST WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...MODELS ARE 
INDICATING THAT ANOTHER...WEAKER ONE IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS A DEEP TROUGH NOW OVER THE 
CENTRAL U.S. SHIFTS E TODAY AND INTRODUCES A HEALTHY DOSE OF A 
COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO MUCH OF 
NORTHERN MEXICO. INCREASING PRESSURES SHOULD THEN ARRIVE INTO 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TONIGHT AND INITIATE N TO NE 
WINDS TO 20 KT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE HIGH 
RESOLUTION NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THAT WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20 
TO 25 KT WITH SOME ISOLATED 30 KT WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY 
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT BY SUN. SEAS SHOULD 
SLOWLY BUILD UP TO 8 FT IN A FEW AREAS WITHIN 240 NM DOWNWIND OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER SAT AND SUN.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT N OF A LINE FROM 
27N129W TO 28N123W SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS WITH 
SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...THE NEXT 
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER 
SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND IT BY SUN...LEADING TO YET ANOTHER INCREASE 
IN WINDS. EXPECT NW TO N WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W 
AND 125W BY SUN MORNING...WITH SEAS OF 8 FT REAPPEARING OVER 
THIS AREA.  FARTHER SW...ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BEHIND A 
STRING OF UPPER TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WEST HAS BEEN KEEPING 
TRADES BLOWING STRONGER-THAN-NORMAL IN A BELT ROUGHLY FROM 10N 
TO 20N W OF 125W. THESE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED YESTERDAY 
AND ARE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AGAIN LATER 
THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT TODAY IN NE TO E SWELL 
TO BUILD UP TO 10 FT OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE ABOVE AREA 
LATER THIS WEEKEND.

$$
KIMBERLAIN