000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070956
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 09N84W 
TO 06N95W TO 11N125W TO 07N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 96W AND WITHIN 60-90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL EXTENDS THROUGH 30N130W TO A BASE NEAR 
18N140W. TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
TROUGH NEAR 26N132W AND 21N137W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS WRAPPING 
AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 140W. STRONG SUBTROPICAL 
JET WAS CUTTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 17N140W AND
EXTENDED ENE THROUGH 19N135W THEN BECAME LESS DEFINED WITHIN AN 
AREA OF BROAD WSW FLOW GENERALLY N OF 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS WERE IN EXCESS OF 
100 KT ALONG 140W. 

THE AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET WAS REDEFINED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO 
ALONG 23N WITHIN AN AREA OF CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN 
EXTENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS OF THE U.S. ALONG 100W 
AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. 

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NOTED 
ABOVE THROUGH 12N100W 10N130W TO 9N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 6N W OF 110W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 107W. THE LOW PRESSURE 
REMNANT OF POLO HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 
12N126W TO 8N130W. 
 
THE NOAA SHIP DAVID STARR JORDAN IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF  
CALIFORNIA INDICATED NW SURFACE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 25 KT. 
A NEARBY NWS PLATFORM REPORTED NW 30 KT WINDS. IN ADDITION A 
0226 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NW WINDS OF 
25-30 KT OVER THE SAME AREA. AS A RESULT THE GALE WARNING FOR 
THE AREA HAS BEEN LOWERED. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND DROP BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 36 HOURS. 

$$
COBB