000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
21000 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE 
LINE...08.5N83.5W TO 06N100W TO 08N120W TO 08N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 99W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 
126W TO 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH IS NORTH OF 25N AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 
48 HOURS AND STRENGTHEN SOME AFTER 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE A BROAD 
RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA. 

A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH 
CLOUDS IS FROM 12N TO 22N WEST OF 128W. THIS MOISTURE IS 
EMANATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL WEST OF THE AREA. A 
STRONG SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA IS ALSO 
CONTRIBUTING TO THIS FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF 105W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. THE LOWER 
LEVELS ARE ALSO CLOUD FREE NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 107W. LOW PRESSURE...THE 
REMNANT OF POLO...IS LOCATED NEAR 10N126W 1012 MB AND IS MOVING 
WEST 10 KT AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE A 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OBSERVED BY A NOAA SHIP IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA CAUSED A GALE WARNING TO BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA NORTH 
OF 27N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 24 HOURS.

$$
LL