000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE... 
07N77W TO 07N105W TO 09N115W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 09N115.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH IS NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 125W. THIS 
FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND BEYOND 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE 
LEFT BEHIND AND CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

A MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 128W FROM 16N TO 25N IS MOVING 
EAST ABOUT 10 KT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE REINFORCED WITH AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH AND IN THREE DAYS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE 
OVER THE AREA FROM 120W TO 138W NORTH OF 17N. THE ONLY AREA OF 
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 
119W AND 128W WHERE BROKEN UPPER CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 21N114W TO 10N122W. 
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N118W TO 11.5N122W.  
THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO DISRUPTED THE CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION 
IS FAR TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 
10N123W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 
NM OF THE POINT 09N115W.

EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ THE AREA EAST OF 
110W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

OTHERWISE BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.
 
SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 
FOR THE REMNANTS OF POLO A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL