000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 06N96W 
TO 11N119W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 120W...AND BETWEEN 128W TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES AS 
BROAD TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S AND NW MEXICO...EAST 
OF REX BLOCK CENTERED ALONG 135W. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM NORTHERN BAJA TO 25N125W AS 
THE SUPPORTING MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. A 1026 MB SURFACE 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N133W ASSOCIATED WITH THE BLOCKING RIDGE. 
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH BEHIND THE DYING FRONT AND OFF THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA. NW SWELL UP TO 10 FT WITH 11 SEC PERIODS 
ACCOMPANIES THE WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THE 
MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH 
SLIGHTLY. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY 
INCREASE HOWEVER DUE TO LOCAL FUNNELING EFFECTS. OTHERWISE 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THESE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

S OF 20N...WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM POLO HAS WEAKENED TO A 1009 
MB REMNANT LOW NEAR 10N119W IN THE FACE OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
WESTERLY SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED WEST OF 
THE MAIN CONVECTION...AND IS MORE DISORGANIZED. A 05Z ASCAT PASS 
SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL EVIDENT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. 
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST BEFORE 
OPENING UP TO A TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ELSEWHERE A 
BROAD SWATH OF TRADES PERSISTS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH 
OF THE AREA. THE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS AIDING MODEST 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WEST OF THE REMNANTS OF POLO AS 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. A 03Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OVER TEHUANTEPEC 
TO BE ONLY AROUND 15 KT. FURTHER SOUTH...A SHIP REPORTED 20 KT 
WINDS OFF THE AZUERO PENINSULA OF WESTERN PANAMA...IN LINE WITH 
15 TO 20 KT WINDS SHOWING UP IN QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THE SAME 
PERIOD. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY ENHANCED BY LOW PRES OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD 
THROUGH TODAY. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN