000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE 
LINE...06N77W TO 07N105W TO 08N115W TO 07N125W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 129W TO 133W.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM POLO CENTERED AT 10.2N 118.5W OR ABOUT 910 NM SW 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 2100 UTC MOVING W-NW 
OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. POLO HAS MAINTAINED 
CONVECTION BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED MAINLY IN A LIMITED 
BAND EAST OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE EAST 
SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE.
THERE IS GOOD OUTFLOW MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. POLO 
WILL TRACK WEST TOWARD STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AFTER 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. COOLER 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE CENTER WILL ALSO LIMIT 
DEVELOPMENT AS POLO MOVES WEST. FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION 
SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST 
/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC. 

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH IS NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 125W. THIN 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE NORTH OF 
30N. SOUTH OF 30N TO 23N THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER 
THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO AND BEYOND. 

A SHORTWAVE MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 132W FROM 18N TO 25N. 
AN AREA OF BROKEN MAINLY UPPER CLOUDS EXTENDS WITHIN 480 NM EAST 
OF THE SHORTWAVE. 

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE 
EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER 
THE AREA.

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LL