000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041618
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 05N99W TO 10N113W TO 06N127W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 
POLO.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS E OF 
87W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 124W-135W.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM POLO CENTERED AT 9.9N 117.6W OR ABOUT 1030 NM S- 
SW OF S TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 1500 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 285 
DEG AT 12 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1005 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 GUSTS 45 KT.  POLO DEVELOPED MORE DEEP 
CONVECTION WITHIN ALL QUADRANTS AND NOW SHOWS A BETTER OUTFLOW 
ALOFT IN NRN SEMICIRCLE.  STILL...THIS BURST OF INTENSIFICATION 
APPEARS TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY AS POLO TRACKS INTO A MUCH DRIER 
AIR MASS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  IN ADDITION 
...UPPER LEVEL SW SHEAR SHOULD ARREST ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST 
/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 13N116W SEEMS TO 
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS E PAC N OF 13N AND W OF 
120W.  ENCROACHING MOISTURE W OF 125W ADVECTED BY WEAK 60 KT JET 
FEEDING ITCZ ACTIVITY ALONG FROM 07-09N.  BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WRN CARIBBEAN EXTEND W TO FRINGES OF 
POLO ENHANCING ITS OUTFLOW ALOFT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ALONG 30N HAS 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTER 
BEHIND JUST NW OF BASIN PRODUCING LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS 
SPREADING SE INTO E PAC.  RIDGE FORCE NW WINDS ALONG CALIFORNIA 
COAST EXTENDING ALONG BAJA PENINSULA N OF 24N.  FRESH TRADES ON 
SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO EXTEND TROUGH FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW ATTRACTED INTO WRN CARIBBEAN DUE TO LOW 
PRES FORMATION THERE...BRINGING STRONG SW FLOW AND MODERATE 
SWELLS E OF 96W.  FURTHER NORTH...DECAYING GAP WIND IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD REACH BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 24 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES