000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032154 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON NOV 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 06N90W TO 09N114W TO 10N110W TO 07N120W TO 09N136W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 133W AND 138W AND 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 140W. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM POLO CENTERED AT 9.2N 114.2W OR ABOUT 860 NM SSW OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 2100 UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH SHIPS MODEL VALUES SHOW NO MORE THAN 10 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE HIGHER THAN THE SHEAR OVER THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. PUFFS OF CONVECTION INTERMITTENTLY HAVE BEEN FORMING IMMEDIATELY E OF THE CENTER...WITH HEALTHIER AND MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION OCCURRING IN A BAND ROUGHLY 90 NM FROM THE CENTER OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE. POLO COULD NOMINALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING THEREAFTER...AS IT ENCOUNTERS EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST /ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC...A RAPIDLY MOVING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG 136W IS MOVING E AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN THE ITCZ. A 1518 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED SCATTERED 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH EXPAND FARTHER N IN AN AREA FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 122W. IN ADDITION TO STRONGER WINDS... RELATED BUT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SURROUNDS THE ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND 140W...THOUGH THERE ARE FEW SIGNS OF ANY ORGANIZATION. CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ON THE CUSP OF A HIGH WESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE SHEAR PERHAPS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ASIDE FROM THAT...CLIMATOLOGY DOES NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT SO FAR WEST THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WHICH STARTED COMING OUT OF THE NE PACIFIC IS FLOODING MOST OF THE NW HALF OF THE AREA TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE DISPERSING TONIGHT AND TUE. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSES INDICATE NW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT GENERALLY NW OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 25N112W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W. THE NW SWELL IS COMBINING WITH ENHANCED TRADES FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 122W TO MAKE FOR A LARGE AREA OF ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 11 FT. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE ENHANCED TRADES SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF...AND THE NW SWELL COMING OUT OF THE NE PACIFIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISPERSING AND SUBSIDING AS IT PERVADES MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W. FINALLY...A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE/STORM EVENT WHICH BEGAN LAST WEEK AROUND THIS TIME HAS FINALLY COME TO A CLOSE. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUE TO SHOW N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.594.5W TO 14N95.5W. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT WERE STILL NOTED AS FAR S AS NEARLY 10.5N98W...WITH N TO NE SWELL FROM THE LONG-LIVED EVENT ARCING WELL SW TO W TO NEAR 08N110W. INTERESTINGLY...A COMBINATION OF IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OTHER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG GAP WINDS AND RELATED SURFACE EVAPORATION HAVE COOLED WATER TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO NEARLY 3C IN SOME AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WITH LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE NOW SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MEXICO...THE PATTERN WHICH LEAD TO THIS LONG-LIVED GAP WIND EPISODE IS BEGINNING TO DISAPPEAR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ KIMBERLAIN