000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031618
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 10N82W TO 05N91W TO 05N99W TO 10N110W TO 07N120W TO 
09N134W TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 131W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 98W. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM POLO CENTER AT 8.8N 113.2W OR ABOUT 100 NM S-SW 
OF SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 1500 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 
10 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1005 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 35 WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.  LATEST SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICT CYCLONE AS SMALL AND TIGHT INNER CORE STRUCTURE 
WITH TIGHT BANDING FEATURES COILED AROUND CENTER...HOWEVER DEEP 
CONVECTION AROUND CENTER DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY LAST SIX HRS.

LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS POLO TO STRENGTHEN UNDER LIGHT 
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER NEXT 48 HRS...WHILE MOVING ON W-NW TO NW 
COURSE.  SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 10N118W TO 
01N120W SPLITS RIDGE THAT WOULD OTHERWISE STRETCH ALONG 10N-12N 
THROUGHOUT ENTIRE E PAC.  VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 12N EXCEPT 
SWATH OF MOISTURE ENCROACHING WITHIN 180 NM OF 90 KT JET CORE 
FROM 15N140W TO 23N126W.  

RIDGE COMPRISED OF ONE BROAD ANTICYCLONE AT 12N127W AND SECOND 
SMALLER ONE AT 09N105W.  GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CAUSED BY 
SADDLE BETWEEN TROUGH AND E ANTICYCLONE WAS ENHANCING DEEP 
CONVECTION AROUND TROPICAL STORM POLO...WHICH HAS LOST PLENTY OF 
ITS CLOUDS IN LAST SIX HOURS.    

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB AT 26N131W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
13N105W TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AGAINST CALIFORNIA COAST 
INCLUDING NRN SECTIONS OF BAJA PENINSULA.  MODERATE TO STRONG NW 
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BUT REMAIN RESTRICTED N 
OF 27N. 

ELSEWHERE...WELL-DEFINED BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL SPREAD 
THROUGHOUT E PAC TODAY THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT ENDED EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT 
N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL LINGER FOR NEXT 24-36 HRS.  SWELLS 
FROM LONG-LIVED EPISODE SPREADING WELL W TO 110W FROM 8N-13N. 
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE THROUGH WED.

$$
WALLY BARNES