000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031026 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON NOV 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 6N90W 7N100W 9N110W 7N119W 9N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W-133W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 134W-139W. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM POLO CENTERED NEAR 8.9N 112.4W OR ABOUT 980 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA TIP AT 03/0900 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1057 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THE CYCLONE AS HAVING A RATHER SMALL AND TIGHT INNER CORE STRUCTURE WITH TIGHT BANDING FEATURES COILED AROUND THE CENTER...HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED IN JUST THE PAST FEW HOURS AS CLOUD TOPS ARE IN A WARMING TREND. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS POLO TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN UNDER A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS... WHILE MOVING ON A WNW TO NW COURSE. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...DISCUSSION... MID/UPPER LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SW INTO THE FAR NW MEXICO...BUT IS QUICKLY MOVING E AS HIGH PRES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUILDS E IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRES OF 1022 MB IS ANALYZED W OF THE FRONT NEAR 28N135W WITH A RIDGE WITH A RIDGE ESE TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS IS CREATING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS RESULTING IN NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST N OF 24N. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO LAST THROUGH WED. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 13N125W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NNE THROUGH 20N125W TO 32N127W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT TO THE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE...AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 131W-133W ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH S OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE ALONG 15N131W 8N131W WHICH IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO ITS N IS PRODUCING E WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 13N-19N W OF 126W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND E TO NEAR 122W IN 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ESE AND STRENGTHENS SOME. OTHERWISE...A WELL-DEFINED BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL COMING OUT OF THE NE PACIFIC SHOULD SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE NW HALF OF THE AREA TODAY...SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... CURRENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT WITH N-NE WINDS OF 30-35 KT IS ON TRACK TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 2-3 HOURS. A HI RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED THESE GALE WINDS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 14N96W. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREA...N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT WERE NOTED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 13N97W...WITH MAINLY NE SWELLS FROM THE LONG-LIVED EVENT SPREADING WELL SW TO W TO NEAR 110W FROM 8N-13N. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH WED AS BY THEN ONLY A SMALL AREA OF N-NE WINDS TO 20 KT SHOULD LINGER IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MOST PROBABLY IN THE MORNING. $$ AGUIRRE