000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022336
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 07N90W TO 09N110W TO 06N115W TO 09N128W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 126W TO 129W AND 90 NM BETWEEN 128W AND 
130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 131W AND 135W.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 8.6N 109.8W OR 860 
NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA TIP AT 02/2100 
UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTS TO 
40 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DISORGANIZED MASS OF 
CONVECTION MAINLY E OF THE CENTER...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES 
NO COLDER THAN -60C. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE MAKES SOME 
SENSE...GIVEN THAT THE MOST RECENT CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMAINS OF WHAT 
LOOKED TO BE A WEAK BANDING FEATURE OFF TO THE SW AND W HAS 
BEGUN TO FURTHER DISSIPATE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEE 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3 
/WTPZ33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC...LATEST SURFACE 
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N128W MOVING W TO WNW 
AT 10 KT. LAST FEW HOURS OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY VERIFY
THE LOW AS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. CIMSS 
ANALYSES REVEAL THAT THE BROAD LOW IS ON THE CUSP OF A HOSTILE 
WESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THE NW...THOUGH AT PRESENT IS ONLY 
EXPERIENCING WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS PERSIST 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT 
NONE INDICATES ANY CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

OTHERWISE...A WELL-DEFINED BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL COMING 
OUT OF THE NE PACIFIC SHOULD FLOOD THE NW HALF OF THE AREA 
TONIGHT AND MON...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT NW OF A LINE 
FROM 25N112W TO 13N123W TO 02N140W BY MON EVENING. FROM 10N TO 
20N W OF ABOUT 125W STRENGTHENING TRADES THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
SHOULD ALSO INTRODUCE NE WIND WAVES...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEA OVER THIS AREA EARLY THIS WEEK.

FINALLY...A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE/STORM EVENT WHICH BEGAN 
EARLIER LAST WEEK CONTINUES TONIGHT. EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA 
SUGGEST THAT N TO NE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT STILL WERE PRESENT 
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.594.5W TO 14N95W. 
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT WERE NOTED AS FAR 
S AS NEARLY 10N97W...WITH N TO NE SWELL FROM THE LONG-LIVED 
EVENT ARCING WELL SW TO W TO NEAR 08N108W. AS A DEEP TROUGH 
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
...LOWERING PRESSURES OVER MEXICO AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS 
SHOULD CAUSE THE EVENT TO FINALLY WIND DOWN.

$$
KIMBERLAIN