000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021640
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 07N81W TO 05N91W TO 09N104W TO 06N114W TO 08N127W TO 
08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
OF AXIS FROM 124W-137W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 
NM OF AXIS E OF 94W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 14N123W MAINTAINS 
CONTROL OF TIGHT CONTROL OF E PAC W OF 110W WITH DRY AND STABLE 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS.  MINOR AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM 
TROUGH SEEP ON WEAK 70 KT JET STREAM ON SW SIDE OF ANTICYCLONE 
FROM 6N140W TO 20N134W.  FLATTENED CREST OF ANTICYCLONE GIVES 
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW N OF 26N.

SECOND MUCH SMALLER ANTICYCLONIC VORTEX AT 09N104W WITH WEAK 
DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN BOTH ANTICYCLONES PROVIDE MINOR 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION OF SURFACE LOW 
PRES AT 08N107W...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 16N94W TO 04N99W...JUST 
E OF SMALL ANTICYCLONE...EXTENDING DRY SLOT E OF 110W N OF 13N.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... 
WEAK AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 32N121W TO 28N130W TO 26N140W 
NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE NEXT 24 HRS AS SURFACE HIGH PRES 1023 MB 
CENTERED AT 25N132W TAKES OVER AS MAIN FEATURE IN E PAC.  RIDGE 
EXTENDING OVER INTO COAST OF CALIFORNIA CAUSING STRONG NW-N 
WINDS ALONG COAST N OF 25N.  LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM STORM 
CENTER WELL N OF AREA SPREADING SE THROUGH E PAC WILL REACH LOW 
LATITUDES BY 48 HRS.

SURFACE LOW PRES AT 08N107W BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER LAST 
24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY BECOME TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 48 
HRS.  SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW PRES 
CENTER.

GAP WINDS...
CURRENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT EXPECTED TO DWINDLE BELOW 
GALE FORCE WITHIN 24 HR AS HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS 
AND MOVES E INTO SW N ATLC BASIN.  SIMILARLY...WINDS ACROSS 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA HAVE DIMINISHED AS WRN CARIBBEAN 
WINDS ALSO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO RIDGE MOVEMENT. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS S OF 08N W OF 90W WILL SUBSIDE AND 
DECREASE IN COVERAGE BUT SHOULD STILL LAST THROUGH FORECAST 
PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES