000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021008
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 7N90W 8N105W 6N114W 8N124W 8N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 102W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-93W AND 123W-124W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
SW INTO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SW TO 28N117W TO 24N123W. ITS SURFACE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT IS WEAKENING FROM 32N125W TO 27N132W TO 25N140W AS IT 
MOVES E ABOUT 15 KT. WINDS ALONG AND TO THE NW OF THE FRONT HAVE 
DROPPED OFF TO 10-15 KT AS NOTED IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 
0300 UTC LAST NIGHT. LARGE SWELLS UP TO 13 FT ARE OCCURRING TO 
THE NW OF THE FRONT...AND ARE FORECAST TO 9 FT OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

HIGH PRES OF 1022 MB IS ANALYZED W OF THE FRONT NEAR 29N138W
WITH A RIDGE E TO NW BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS IS CREATING A 
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS RESULTING 
IN NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO LAST INTO MID WEEK.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 15N123W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING ENE TO 16N115W TO ACROSS NW MEXICO AND TO N OF 
THE AREA AT 31N108W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRESENT TO THE SW 
OF THE ANTICYCLONE...AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE ITCZ CONVECTION 
SOME BETWEEN 123W-127W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED RIDGE ALONG 16N132W 10N132W MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED
WEAK MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-120 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM
12N-15N. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO ITS
N IS PRODUCING E WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 122W-135W. 
THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND E TO NEAR 120W IN 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ESE AND STRENGTHENS SOME.

THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 8N106W HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE 
LAST 24 HOURS AND COULD POSSIBLY BECOME A  TROPICAL CYCLONE 
SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT.
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WAS LIKELY SPURRED BY THE ATMOSPHERIC 
VORTICITY FROM THE LOW TO MID LEVEL JET EARLIER EVIDENT THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WAS ENHANCED BY ADDED VORTICITY SUPPLIED 
BY THE JET THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY IN WESTWARD DIRECTION AT CLOSE TO 
15 KT AS IT POSSIBLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...
CURRENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT WITH N-NE WINDS OF 30-35 
KT IS ON TRACK TO WEAKEN TO 25-35 KT IN 48 HOURS AND TO BELOW 
GALE FORCE AROUND 12 UTC MON. HOWEVER...NE SWELLS OF POSSIBLY UP 
TO 10 FT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE GULF...AND OVER THE AREA S OF 
THE GULF THROUGH LATE MON.

$$
AGUIRRE