000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020348
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 07N105W HAS BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND COULD POSSIBLY BECOME A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  NUMEROUS 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE LOW CENTER AND NE OF THE LOW FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 101W 
AND 105W.  THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WAS LIKELY SPURRED BY THE 
ATMOSPHERIC VORTICITY FROM THE LOW TO MID LEVEL JET THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WAS ENHANCED BY ADDED VORTICITY SUPPLIED BY 
THE JET THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST 
TO PROGRESS JUST NORTH OF WEST AROUND 10 KT AND GRADUALLY 
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG THE LINE FROM 
09N78W TO 07N95W TO 07N115W TO 06N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 
88W TO 93W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 89W.  IN 
ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 30 NM OF 
COAST BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA FOR SEVERAL DAYS IS GRADUALLY RELAXING AS THE HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO BEGINS TO WEAKEN.  THE QSCAT PASS 
AT 2340 UTC SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH VERY LITTLE AREA REPORTING 
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  THIS CYCLE OF QSCAT PASSES HAS 
YET TO PASS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT BASED ON EARLIER 
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL CONSENSUS...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN 
EFFECT.  HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE SUN 
NIGHT/MON. 

A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN OVER THE N EASTERN 
PACIFIC FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IS BRINGING NW SWELL TO TO 
MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 120W.  A REINFORCING SHOT TO THIS BROAD 
TROUGH...IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE...IS OVER NW 
WATERS AND IS HELPING TO CARRY THE BROAD TROUGH EASTWARD.  
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
NEAR 15N122W IS PASSING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
TROUGH...LIMITING THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH.  
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING...BUT LEAVE 
ELEVATED SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE IN NW WATERS 
PRIMARILY N OF 15N AND W OF 125W TODAY.  A TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ELEVATED THE 
WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 
KT RANGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK