000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS BETWEEN 06N 
AND 07N ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FOLLOWING POINTS 07N79W 
AND 09N85.5W AND 07N121.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE POINT 07.5N102W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA N OF 25N W 
OF 125W. ITS SURFACE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N133W 
TO 26N140W AND IS MOVING SE ABOUT 15 KT. SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE 
NOTED IN QUIKSCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE 
FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LARGE SWELLS UP TO 15 FT ARE BEING 
REPORTED THROUGH THESE WATERS...AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE 
NEXT 36-48 HOURS TO AROUND 11 FT AS THE SWELL TRAIN SPREADS E 
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE EASTERN PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT OVER N WATERS WILL PUSH 
THE HIGH PRESSURE...1023 MB...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 28N120W TO 
THE E AS WELL...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE 
PART INCLUDING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE WINDS WILL BE 
NW TO N DIRECTION GENERALLY 20 KT.

ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W-123W. 

S OF 18N WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED. 

GAP WINDS...
CURRENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT WITH N-NE WINDS OF 30 TO 
40 KT IS CONFIRMED BY A SHIP OBSERVATION IN THE GULF OF 35 KT. 
WINDS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 35 KT IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
MONDAY AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO SE THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA ALSO WEAKENS.

$$
LL