000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011025
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 7N90W 7N100W 7N110W 7N120W
8N133W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-118W...AND 60 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 
86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 
90W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
N OF 25N W OF 133W. ITS SURFACE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM 30N125W TO 19N140W AND IS MOVING SE ABOUT 15 KT. SW WINDS 
OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED IN BOTH RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS...AND IN 
QUIKSCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME 
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LARGE SWELLS UP 
TO 15 FT ARE BEING REPORTED THROUGH THESE WATERS...AND WILL 
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS TO AROUND 11 FT AS THE 
SWELL TRAIN SPREADS E THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
AREA.

THE EASTERN PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT OVER N WATERS WILL PUSH 
THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 28N120W TO THE E AS 
WELL...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART 
INCLUDING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE WINDS WILL BE IN 
THE NW-N GENERALLY 20 KT WITH 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED IN 36 
HOURS.

AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING W WITH TIME IS 
CENTERED NEAR 14N.5N113W. A RIDGE EXTENDS WNW FROM THIS 
ANTICYCLONE TO 19N130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE SW OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
116W-120W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W OF THE RIDGE FROM 
15N120W TO 10N125W. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING WITH THE TROUGH FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 120W-122W. 
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N132W TO 9N133W MOVING W 
10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH.

GAP WINDS...
CURRENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT WITH N-NE WINDS OF 30-40 
KT AS NOTED IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 0000 UTC LAST NIGHT
IS FORECAST TO LESSEN TO 30-35 KT IN 48 HOURS AND TO 25-35 KT IN 
48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES OVER S CENTRAL MEXICO WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO WEAKEN AS 
WELL.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
DURING MON AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO SE THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA ALSO WEAKENS.

$$
AGUIRRE