000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 06N100W TO 14N115W TO 10N132W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
114W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120-180 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 138W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 8WW AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N135W THROUGH 21N140W. 
POLAR JETSTREAM SWEEPS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THEN 
CURVES NE ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 20N140W TO 
32N128W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 
110-130 KT OVER THE N PORTION OF THE JET. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W. OVERCAST AREA OF MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. 
NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N119W TO 16N124W TO A TO 
A POORLY DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 10N130W. 
DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 24N114W THEN SW TO 
12N124W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH 
AND THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE W IS ENHANCING STRONG 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ DESCRIBED ABOVE. AN E TO W 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER GUATEMALA TO 
12N110W.

TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH GALE 
FORCE WINDS CONTINUING TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
A HIGH RESOLUTION 1202 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS WERE IN 
THE 30-35 KT RANGE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE THROUGH
16N95W TO 14N96W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE 
OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST ONE IS 
ALONG 16N116W TO 10N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AND S OF THE ITCZ. 
SECOND TROUGH IS FROM 15N129W TO 8N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE THE TROUGH AND THE 
ITCZ. 

$$
COBB